How 5 Countries Could Become 14

Slowly, the map of the Middle East could be redrawn. An analysis by Robin Wright. Related Article »

SPILLOVER TO IRAQ

In the simplest of several possibilities,

northern Kurds join Syrian Kurds.

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Many

central areas, dominated by Sunnis, join

Syria’s Sunnis. And the south becomes

Shiitestan. It’s not likely to be so clean.

In a more powerful twist, all or part of South Yemen could

then become part of Saudi Arabia. Nearly all Saudi commerce

is via sea, and direct access to the Arabian Sea would

diminish dependence on the Persian Gulf — and fears of

Iran’s ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz.

YEMEN SPLITS

The poorest Arab country

could break (again) into two

pieces following a potential

referendum in South

Yemen on independence.

LIBYA UNGLUED

As a result of powerful

tribal and regional rivalries,

Libya could break into its two

historic parts — Tripolitania

and Cyrenaica — and

possibly a third Fezzan state

in the southwest.

PRE-MONARCHY

SAUDI ARABIA

Long term, Saudi

Arabia faces its

own (suppressed)

internal divisions that

could surface as power

shifts to the next

generation of princes.

The kingdom’s unity is

further threatened by

tribal differences, the

Sunni-Shiite divide and

economic challenges. It

could break into the five

regions that preceded

the modern state.

Possible city-states

3. The Sunni heartlandsecedes and then may combine with provinces in Iraq to form Sunnistan.

2. A Syrian Kurdistancould break off and eventually merge with the Kurds of Iraq.

1. Alawites, a minority that has controlled Syria for decades, dominate a coastal corridor.

SYRIA: THE TRIGGER?

Sectarian and ethnic rivalries could break it into at least three pieces:

LIBYA

YEMEN

SAUDI ARABIA

Sana

Aden

Sabha

Mecca

Jeddah

Benghazi

MISURATA

Tripoli

Ad Dammam

Riyadh

BAGHDAD

Erbil

SHIITESTAN

TRIPOLITANIA

FEZZAN

CYRENAICA

WESTERN

ARABIA

SOUTH

YEMEN

NORTH

YEMEN

SOUTH ARABIA

EASTERN

ARABIA

WAHHABISTAN

NORTH ARABIA

ALAWITESTAN

SUNNISTAN

KURDISTAN

MEDITERRANEAN SEA

ARABIAN

SEA

PERSIAN

GULF

STRAIT OF HORMUZ

JABAL AL-DRUZE

EGYPT

IRAN

IRAQ

SYRIA